WHY WE ARE SHUT-DOWN + STRAIGHT TALK ABOUT THE 1918 FLU PANDEMIC + RACIST DESIGNATIONS OF COVID-19
Why We Are Shut-Down
There is no doubt that the general shut-down is a source of
frustration, general economic worry and lost jobs. But what it really comes down to
is the value of human lives.
The experience in China and Italy showed that the health-care system
quickly gets overwhelmed when you have a virus that spreads as quickly
as the Corona virus does. Even when 99% of people should recover,
there's a very real danger that if too many seek medical help at the
same time, the system will get overwhelmed and many will not get the
attention they need, leading to a higher mortality rate.
And those who are already in the hospitals are in danger when large numbers
of people who have the virus are brought in. There is also the danger that
people who have other health problems won't get the attention they need, or
might not even seek medical help over fears of the virus. There were stories
of exactly those things happening in China, until they got the situation
under control.
The other problem is that despite precautions, some health care workers inevitably
will get sick, or will have to stay home to take care of family members who are
sick. This reduces the effectiveness of the health care system also. So will
police and firefighters, which will put even more people in danger.
If we did not shut down, the whole thing might be over in a month, but the death toll
would be unacceptably high, and there would almost certainly be inadequate fire and
police protection during that time.
So the value of the shut down is to slow down the spread of the virus so
that the health care system can cope with it, which will keep the mortality rate down,
and so society can stay safe.
Italy's mortality rate was lower than China's, and I suspect that
ours will be lower than Italy's thanks to the shut-down.
Straight Talk about the 1918 Flu Pandemic
The US was ramping up to participate in World War I, and men were being called up
all over the country and being gathered in make-shift camps for training.
Any time this happens, the number cases of communicable diseases jumps. It is an
inevitable hazard of war.
The first reported cases of the 1918 flu were in an army camp in Kansas in early March.
Two men reported to the sick bay with high fever, severe headache and cough. Within
24 hours, both men were dead. This seems faster than it probably was, as the men might not
have reported when they first had symptoms - they may have waited. Still, this is
a very fast progression. Due to troop movements by rail and ship, the virus spread very quickly.
There were several waves of the flu, possibly different strains, but right away
a major difference was noticed between this flu and a normal flu: The mortality
rate was much higher among young, healthy adults.
This is very different from normal flus and the current Corona Virus Disease. Normally
those most affected are the elderly, and those who have underlying health issues. Why young
healthy adults were most affected is still a matter of conjecture. Our best scientific
guess is that this flu somehow produced an overreaction of the immune system, creating
inflammation in the lungs leading to pneumonia, which was the leading cause of death.
Side note: The symptoms of the flu, and in fact many diseases, are not directly caused by
the disease, rather they are due to the reaction of your immune system. The fever is
the body's attempt to change the virus's environment to be less hospitable, and at
the same time increase cell growth. The headache is due to increased blood volume,
which increases blood pressure. The aches are your body trying to get you to stop
doing things and rest so that it can devote all resources to fighting the infection.
Since young people have stronger immune systems, an overreaction
would be more of a problem for them. Because young adults were most affected there
were unfortunately many orphans of that
pandemic. My grandmother was one. One of her parents got the flu, and the
other insisted on taking care of their loved one. Both died. My grandmother
was raised by her aunt & uncle afterward. You likely have relatives who died in
that pandemic, whether you know it or not.
Left: my great-grandmother Clara. Center: my great-grandfather Joseph. Right: my grandmother Betty.
With the dislocation of the World War and rampant malnutrition, the death toll was
high. As it went from city to city, there would be a good month where there
was almost complete shut down of everything because so many people were sick
at the same time. Estimates vary, but most would agree that approximately
500 million people worldwide
caught that flu 1918-19 and about 50 million people died.
That would be a 10% mortality rate, which is far more than the World War killed from 1914 to 1918.
We are in a much better position to fight the current virus today. The steps that
we are taking, although costly, are going to save many lives in
the long run, and the mortality rate will be much, much lower.
RACIST DESIGNATIONS OF COVID-19
Calling this virus a "Chinese
virus" is unscientific and inappropriate.
Viruses respect no political boundaries, and could care less about who they infect.
Most novel viruses and flus are cross-overs from the animal world and are
going to start wherever humans are in close contact with animals. In other words,
they are more likely to start wherever agriculture occurs. Blaming the Chinese
for this pandemic is essentially blaming them for farming.
The US is less likely to be a source of novel viruses not because we are better,
but because
we tend to practice more industrialized farming and food processing.
This is not a good thing,
as these practices are also
the reason we have frequent food recalls because of contamination by
Salmonella, E. Coli, etc, which also cause people to get sick and sometimes
die.
